Tropical Storm HENRIETTE

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TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007
 
HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE THIS MORNING
WITH AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT
IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON
INTENSITY.  THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS OVER WARM WATER AND
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND HAS BEEN
CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
HENRIETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 310/10.  THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES.  DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CLUSTERED
ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD...TAKING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS.  THE GFDL
MODEL IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS
ON THE TRACK BUT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT FASTER IN TERMS OF
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARDS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS REFLECTING A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT.  ONCE CROSSING THE BAJA
PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.   DISSIPATION OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A 96 HOUR POSITION IS GIVEN SO AS NOT TO IMPLY
DISSIPATION RIGHT AT THE COAST.  HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE
CYCLONE WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 19.9N 108.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.2N 111.4W    75 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.9N 111.8W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 33.0N 110.0W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME
 
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