ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS LARGE BUT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION AND THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND AND BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO. HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THIS PATTERN COULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TEMPORARILY ON MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FORECAST BECOME HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ONCE AGAIN A GROUP OF TRACK MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOLER RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS BRINGS HENRIETTE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN THE GULF OF CORTES WHERE THE WATER IS WARM AND STRENGTHENING COULD CONTINUE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTED FOR THE FIRST OPTION AND KEEPS HENRIETTE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WEAKENING. THIS IN FACT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.8N 104.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.5N 105.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.2N 107.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.5N 113.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 114.1W 60 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 115.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC