ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112007 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED. A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO STEER HENRIETTE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOME UNCERTAIN SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND MOST OF THEM BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 16.2N 101.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 18.0N 104.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 24.5N 113.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:03 UTC