Tropical Storm GIL

ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007               
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 201N 1121W 34 50   9(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 12 201N 1121W 50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 201N 1121W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 204N 1143W 34  1  35(36)   6(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 24 204N 1143W 50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 204N 1143W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 205N 1165W 34  X   5( 5)  17(22)   4(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 36 205N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 36 205N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 202N 1185W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 48 202N 1185W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 202N 1185W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 195N 1225W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 72 195N 1225W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 195N 1225W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     40      35      30      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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