ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007 A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER GIL NEAR 1400Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NO MORE THAN 25 KT...AND PROBABLY LESS. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND IT IS LIKELY THAT GIL WILL NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT A GENEROUS 25 KT. THE REMNANT LOW STAGE OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY LAST FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION UNWINDS OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...280/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOW WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.1N 121.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.3N 122.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.6N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 126.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.2N 127.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1800Z 20.2N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC