ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007 GIL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SPORADIC CONVECTION THAT BARELY MEETS THE REQUIREMENTS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OVERALL...IT SEEMS LIKE THE CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THIS THINKING IS IN LINE WITH DECREASING DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. GIL SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...IF NOT SOONER. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NOW...280/8. WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY AND FORCE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.8N 120.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.0N 121.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.3N 123.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.6N 125.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1200Z 19.9N 127.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1200Z 20.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC