ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007 GIL REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION BUT WITH RATHER SCANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T1.5 OR 25 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER. LIKE A FIELD GOAL SPLITTING THE UPRIGHTS... NEARLY THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION OF GIL FELL SQUARELY IN THE GAP BETWEEN QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES AT 0130 AND 0300 UTC. GIVEN THE CONFLICTING AND LIMITED DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS HELD AT 30 KT. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE NEAR 27 CELSIUS BUT WILL GET GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO A STEADY DECLINE IS FORECAST. SINCE GIL SHOULD REACH 24 CELSIUS WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME. GIL AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH JUST A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT 8-9 KT IS FORECAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS...IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 18.6N 120.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.7N 121.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 19.0N 123.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 19.4N 125.0W 25 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 19.8N 126.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 06/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC