ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING FEATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF 2.0...30 KT...WAS RECEIVED FROM TAFB AND SHIP ZQCP3 ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1002.6 MB. DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY SITE AT SOCORRO ISLAND HELPED TO DETERMINE THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA...THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A LARGE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST WITH TIME AWAY FROM MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 19.4N 109.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 19.8N 110.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 20.2N 112.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 20.5N 115.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 20.5N 117.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.0N 121.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC