Tropical Storm FLOSSIE
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 23(36) 1(37) 1(38)
15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 127N 1366W 34 85 9(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
12 127N 1366W 50 26 17(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
12 127N 1366W 64 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
24 130N 1391W 34 1 64(65) 11(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
24 130N 1391W 50 X 19(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
24 130N 1391W 64 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
36 134N 1413W 34 X 7( 7) 46(53) 9(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65)
36 134N 1413W 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
36 134N 1413W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
48 137N 1434W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 24(38) 10(48) 1(49) X(49)
48 137N 1434W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14)
48 137N 1434W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 145N 1475W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 8(32) X(32)
72 145N 1475W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
72 145N 1475W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
96 155N 1525W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16)
96 155N 1525W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
96 155N 1525W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 170N 1570W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
120 170N 1570W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 170N 1570W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60 60 60 55 55 50 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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