ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2007 THE FIRST SEVERAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY REVEAL AN INCREASINGLY DISTINCT EYE...DECENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEEPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHERE IT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN A BIT THIN. AN SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1714Z ALSO DEPICTS A SOLID AND SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WRAPPING ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE A CONSENSUS 77 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75 KT. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1525Z COULD NOT RESOLVE ANY HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...BUT IT DID CONFIRM THAT FLOSSIE'S OVERALL WIND FIELD IS FAIRLY SMALL...WITH WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTENDING NO FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN ABOUT 60 N MI. FLOSSIE CONTINUES DUE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 11 KT...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ENOUGH RIDGING TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF FLOSSIE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS TO FORCE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD. NOTABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS...HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE FUTURE LATITUDE OF FLOSSIE. THE HWRF IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER BUT SEEMS TO TAKE THE CYCLONE TOO FAR NORTH EVEN EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...ON THE OTHER EXTREME OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NAVY MODELS...GFS...AND THE CONSENSUS ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD...AND THAT THE CONSENSUS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK. OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 27C FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS...WITHIN A CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 85 KT IN 24 HOURS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE WATERS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL BENEATH FLOSSIE BEYOND 24 HOURS...AND SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO START INCREASING IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. AS A RESULT...FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ON DAYS TWO AND THREE...FOLLOWED BY MORE WEAKENING AS A TROPICAL STORM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS FLOSSIE TO BE A HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 12.6N 137.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 12.7N 139.0W 80 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 13.1N 141.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 13.6N 143.6W 80 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 14.1N 146.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 150.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 155.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 18.0N 159.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC