ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007 800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2007 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE. FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. FOR NOW...SSTS ARE PLENTY WARM WITH CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES AROUND 28C. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STABLE AIR...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE COULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. INDEED THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS ARE DIVERGENT WITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 48 KT TO 75 KT. DESPITE THE SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...ALL BUT THE HWRF HAVE TRENDED UPWARD. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARDS BUT BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE...BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/12. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 13.4N 128.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 13.2N 130.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 13.2N 132.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 13.2N 134.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 13.3N 136.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 13.9N 140.7W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 16.0N 149.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC