ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007 200 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2007 THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MONITORED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT TWO...ALBEIT RAGGED...HOOKING BANDS. BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ONLY ABOUT 25 KT. THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS... LGEM...AND GFDL GUIDANCE. SHOULD THE CYCLONE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC FORECAST TRACK...STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY DUE TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING MAINLY WESTWARD AND CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 270/10. NINE-E IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST IN 4-5 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE HWRF MODEL AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 13.7N 126.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 13.6N 130.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 13.5N 133.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 13.5N 135.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 14.0N 140.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC