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Tropical Storm ERICK


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007               
2100 UTC WED AUG 01 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 137N 1284W 34 20   7(27)   2(29)   X(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 12 137N 1284W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 137N 1284W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 139N 1300W 34  X  25(25)  12(37)   3(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 24 139N 1300W 50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 139N 1300W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 142N 1315W 34  X   4( 4)  24(28)  10(38)   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 36 142N 1315W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 142N 1315W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 144N 1333W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  19(27)   9(36)   X(36)   1(37)
 48 144N 1333W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 48 144N 1333W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 147N 1368W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   5(23)   2(25)
 72 147N 1368W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 72 147N 1368W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 150N 1395W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   3(16)
 96 150N 1395W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 96 150N 1395W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 150N 1430W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
120 150N 1430W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 150N 1430W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      45      40      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
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