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Tropical Storm DALILA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007               
0900 UTC TUE JUL 24 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X  33(33)  20(53)   4(57)   2(59)   X(59)   X(59)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   7( 7)   8(15)   1(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 176N 1102W 34 31  35(66)   3(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 12 176N 1102W 50  5   5(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 12 176N 1102W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 187N 1108W 34  1  36(37)  18(55)   3(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 24 187N 1108W 50  X   8( 8)   6(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 24 187N 1108W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 196N 1116W 34  X   9( 9)  31(40)  10(50)   4(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 36 196N 1116W 50  X   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 36 196N 1116W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 204N 1126W 34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  15(33)   9(42)   1(43)   X(43)
 48 204N 1126W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 48 204N 1126W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 220N 1150W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  15(20)   3(23)   X(23)
 72 220N 1150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 220N 1150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 230N 1175W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 96 230N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 96 230N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 240N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
120 240N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 240N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      50      45      30      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
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