ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 200 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2007 DALILA IS NOT DONE YET. WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS DISSIPATED...NEW CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 45 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT HAS INCHED UPWARDS TO 41 KT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED SOLELY ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DALILA'S 11TH HOUR HEROICS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DALILA IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 310/8. DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD FIZZLE LATER TODAY AND THE DECAYING CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 20.9N 113.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 21.6N 114.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 22.5N 115.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 23.3N 117.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 23.9N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0600Z 24.5N 121.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 31/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC