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Tropical Storm DALILA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007
 
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DALILA'S CONVECTION HAS ACQUIRED A MORE
BANDED APPEARANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS...
ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING A LITTLE OF LATE.  THE LATEST
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 3.0...OR 45 KT...WHILE THE
CIMSS ADT GAVE ABOUT 50 KT.  GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT.  A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE IS DUE SHORTLY
AFTER ADVISORY TIME THAT MIGHT HELP WITH THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.
 
MICROWAVE PASSES AROUND 01Z INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
330/6. MODEL FIELDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A SMALL
INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND 18Z UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH
COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO TURN DALILA TOWARED THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST. AT THE PRESENT TIME...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A TRACK ANY CLOSER THAN ABOUT 150 NM TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO REFLECT MORE OF
AN INTERACTION WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
ALTHOUGH THE BANDING STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED TODAY...DALILA IS STILL
HAVING DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED.  HOWEVER...
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS NOW REPLACED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
STORM...AND DALILA STILL HAS ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO OF WARM WATER
AHEAD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AND CALLS
FOR DALILA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 18.2N 110.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 19.1N 110.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 20.0N 111.7W    60 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 21.4N 113.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     30/0000Z 23.5N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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