ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 200 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN A 20 TO 25 KT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE RATHER DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION....AND TO THE WEST OF LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT A GENEROUS 35 KT. DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...LGEM...AND THE HWRF...WHICH INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT BY DAY 3...BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH DALILA'S MOTION INFLUENCED BY A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND THE GFDN CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS AROUND MID-PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 1312Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.4N 109.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.1N 109.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.2N 110.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 111.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.8N 112.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 114.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 24.0N 119.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC