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Tropical Storm COSME (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007               
0900 UTC WED JUL 18 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   1(11)   1(12)
BUOY 50004     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BUOY 50002     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 154N 1392W 34 53   2(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 12 154N 1392W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 154N 1392W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 157N 1418W 34  1  21(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 24 157N 1418W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 157N 1418W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 162N 1447W 34  X   1( 1)  16(17)   5(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 36 162N 1447W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 162N 1447W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 167N 1476W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 48 167N 1476W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 167N 1476W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 175N 1535W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   1(11)
 72 175N 1535W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 72 175N 1535W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 185N 1590W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 96 185N 1590W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 185N 1590W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 185N 1640W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
120 185N 1640W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 185N 1640W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     30      30      30      30      25      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC