ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 0300 UTC WED JUL 18 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 152N 1384W 34 40 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 12 152N 1384W 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 152N 1384W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 156N 1409W 34 1 17(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 24 156N 1409W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 156N 1409W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 162N 1436W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) 36 162N 1436W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 162N 1436W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 167N 1466W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) 48 167N 1466W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 167N 1466W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 175N 1525W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 72 175N 1525W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 72 175N 1525W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 180N 1570W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 96 180N 1570W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 96 180N 1570W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 185N 1615W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 120 185N 1615W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 185N 1615W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 30 30 30 25 25 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC