Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane COSME


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007               
2100 UTC MON JUL 16 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 149N 1329W 34 95   3(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 149N 1329W 50 61  12(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
 12 149N 1329W 64 26   8(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
 24 152N 1349W 34 11  62(73)  10(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 152N 1349W 50  1  33(34)  10(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 24 152N 1349W 64  X  10(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
 36 156N 1373W 34  2  10(12)  43(55)   9(64)   2(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 36 156N 1373W 50  X   1( 1)  17(18)   6(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 36 156N 1373W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 160N 1397W 34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  25(38)  11(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 48 160N 1397W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 48 160N 1397W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 
 72 175N 1455W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   6(25)   X(25)
 72 175N 1455W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 175N 1455W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 185N 1515W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)
 96 185N 1515W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 96 185N 1515W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 190N 1575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
120 190N 1575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 190N 1575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     65      60      55      50      45      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN