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Tropical Storm COSME


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007               
1500 UTC MON JUL 16 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   1(11)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
BUOY 50004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 147N 1319W 34 90   5(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 147N 1319W 50 36  20(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 12 147N 1319W 64 14   6(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 24 151N 1338W 34  5  62(67)   9(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 24 151N 1338W 50  X  23(23)  10(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 24 151N 1338W 64  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 36 154N 1357W 34  1  13(14)  36(50)   9(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 36 154N 1357W 50  X   1( 1)  14(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 36 154N 1357W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 48 157N 1379W 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  21(32)   9(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 48 157N 1379W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 48 157N 1379W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 165N 1430W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   6(21)   X(21)
 72 165N 1430W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 72 165N 1430W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 175N 1480W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
 96 175N 1480W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 175N 1480W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 180N 1530W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
120 180N 1530W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 180N 1530W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     60      55      50      45      40      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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