ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 800 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2007 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF COSME HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD TOPS AROUND -80 DEGREES CELSIUS. A 1013 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...AS DID EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 55 KT...WHICH IS ALSO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST...AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL STRONGER RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND ANTICIPATES THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...STEERING COSME ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT CHALLENGING. IN THE NEAR TERM... COSME SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAIRLY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-26C. IF COSME REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...IT WILL MOST LIKELY DO SO IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT COSME COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.3N 130.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.7N 131.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 15.1N 133.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 135.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 137.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 143.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 18.0N 153.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC