ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007 DEEP CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATED THIS MORNING. EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY EXPOSED CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 1200 UTC WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX IN LESS THAN TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND UNDER 10 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR. IN THE NEAR TERM...THESE TWO FACTORS CAN AID THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE OCEAN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 OR 24 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS INHIBITING FACTOR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE DAYS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 15.5N 114.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.6N 124.8W 30 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC