ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED LITTLE ASSISTANCE IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 0937 UTC AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR ABOUT FOUR OR FIVE HOURS. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AS WELL AS THE LONGEVITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/8. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH CAUSED BY PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. DESPITE THE CURRENT DEEP CONVECTION...BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. WITH WATERS BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 18.6N 120.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 19.2N 121.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 19.9N 123.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 20.6N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/1200Z 20.9N 126.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC