ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007 800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2007 DEEP CONVECTION HAS REALLY FIZZLED TONIGHT NEAR THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 30 KT. FOR THE SHORT-TERM...PERSISTENCE IS A GOOD BET BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A RESULT OF THE DEPRESSION CROSSING INTO COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER. AN AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 2100 UTC SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED...SO A NORTHWARD RELOCATION WAS MADE IN THIS ADVISORY. THE LONG-TERM MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. A GRADUAL SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION...BUT OTHERWISE IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE LAST FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 17.7N 119.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 18.2N 120.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 18.8N 121.8W 25 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 19.4N 123.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC