ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007 INFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DENSE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE WHICH SUGGESTS A STABLE AIR MASS. THE SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25 DEG C. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR SOONER IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT MAKE A COMEBACK. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8 BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS PREDICTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 18.1N 113.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 116.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC