ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007 200 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2007 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS OVERALL HAVE WARMED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE. 1800 UTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.0 OR 30 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...A SHORT 12-24 HOUR WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE SSTS FALL BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE LGE...LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION...VERSION OF THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS VERSION MORE CLOSELY SIMULATES THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENT THAN THE STANDARD VERSION OF SHIPS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS INFLUENCING THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION. ONCE THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...EXCEPT A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 16.3N 111.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 17.0N 112.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 17.6N 114.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 18.0N 114.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 18.2N 116.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 14/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC