ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007 ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BARBARA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS NEARING THE COAST. SINCE THEN....AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 1154 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS VERY NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE DATA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ALSO SUPPORT THE LANDFALL OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT PUERTO MADERO REPORTED 31 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 46 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1003.4 MB. A SECOND OBSERVATION AT TAPACHULA MEXICO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005.1 MB. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE ONLY CAVEAT IN THE FORECAST IS THAT SOME MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER COULD GET LEFT BEHIND. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND ASSUMES THAT IT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. IF BARBARA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.8N 92.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 15.6N 92.0W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1200Z 16.5N 91.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC