ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 200 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007 AN 0612Z TRMM PASS JUST IN CONFIRMS THAT BARBARA REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/7. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER BARBARA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK INLAND...OR MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN AND PERHAPS PARALLEL THE COAST OFFSHORE. IN SOME CASES EVEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE ECMWF...FOR EXAMPLE...TAKES THE 850 MB CENTER INLAND BUT THE 500 MB CENTER WESTWARD. THERE ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOME TRACKER ISSUES IN THE GFDL MODEL WITH THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME EASTERLY SHEAR THAT WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF...WHICH ALL INDICATE A BASIC CONTINUATION OF THE TRACK INLAND. THE TRMM PASS DID SHOW THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WAS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SO PERHAPS THE SEPARATION FORECAST BY THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR. THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED MUCH... ALTHOUGH I HAVE REDUCED THE WIND RADII BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT PASS. A WINDSAT PASS BACK AT 2339Z SHOWED GOOD BANDING AND A LOW-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE...BUT THE LATEST TRMM IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT BARBARA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 14.4N 92.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 92.5W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/0600Z 15.6N 92.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC