ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED. A 1220 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS LEAVES LITTLE DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION EXISTS AND IN FACT...IT INDICATES THAT BARBARA IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING A DEEP SYSTEM AGAIN...THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. THE UMKI...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND GFDL FIELDS SHOW LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS REQUIRES ANOTHER EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LANDFALL OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO. BARBARA IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEER ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION IS THE QUESTION. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS DOES THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. THEREAFTER....INTERACTION WITH LAND COULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.0N 94.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 13.3N 93.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.9N 93.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.6N 93.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 15.4N 93.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 16.6N 93.3W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC