ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 800 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007 THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS NEARBY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER...IF IT EXISTS...IS VERY SMALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CLOUD BAND RESEMBLING THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AT THIS TIME...THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS BASED SOLELY ON CONTINUITY AND IS BEING PLACED NEAR AN AREA OF STRONG BUT SMALL CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD OR 090 AT 2 KNOTS... EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE... BARBARA...IF IT SURVIVES...SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION FROM GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BARBARA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED WHEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO BEGINS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 12.9N 95.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 12.9N 94.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 13.0N 94.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 94.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 94.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 95.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 06/0000Z 16.3N 97.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC