ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 200 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007 QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT BARBARA HAS...AT BEST...A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE TROUGH. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ACTIVE BUT POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS COMPETING FOR RESOURCES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...AND COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THIS ZONE AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED MOSTLY ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...IS 105/4...AS BARBARA APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 12.9N 95.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.9N 95.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 13.3N 94.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.0N 94.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 94.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 95.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 95.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 96.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC