ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 800 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007 THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GETTING ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN IT WAS A FEW HOURS AGO...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT. QUIKSCAT PASSED OVER THE DEPRESSION AT ABOUT 0030Z...AND THE DATA HAVE JUST ARRIVED AS I TYPE. A CURSORY ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SUGGESTS THAT THE ADVISORY POSITION AND 30 KT INTENSITY ARE REASONABLE. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS... INCLUDING BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL...HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE...AND SO WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED AT ALL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS STATIONARY. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SLOW COMPONENT OF MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... IMPARTED BY NORTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO EMANATE FROM MEXICO IN BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPSTREAM RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NOW THE 18Z GFDL...THEN FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO EXECUTE A CYCLONIC LOOP INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER MEXICO. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE EXCEPTION WITH NO EASTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE THE FORECAST 500 MB FIELDS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS LOOK VERY SIMILAR... THE DISAGREEMENTS IN TRACK MIGHT BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE MODEL CYCLONE. THE ECMWF HAS THE DEEPEST VORTEX AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHILE THE 18Z GFDL HAS A WEAKER INTENSITY FORECAST THAN BEFORE TO GO ALONG WITH ITS EASTWARD TRACK SHIFT. GIVEN THAT SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST A POTENTIALLY WEAKER CYCLONE TO GO FARTHER EAST...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS BUT IS STILL WEST OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 14.2N 97.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 13.8N 97.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 13.4N 97.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 13.0N 97.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 13.0N 96.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 13.5N 96.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 14.5N 97.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 99.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC