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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression ALVIN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20       
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007               
2100 UTC THU MAY 31 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 125N 1167W 34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 12 125N 1167W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 125N 1167W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 123N 1173W 34  1   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 24 123N 1173W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 123N 1173W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 121N 1179W 34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 36 121N 1179W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 36 121N 1179W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 119N 1185W 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 48 119N 1185W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 119N 1185W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 113N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 72 113N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 113N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 96 105N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 96 105N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 96 105N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     20     20      20      20      20      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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