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Tropical Storm ALVIN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007               
2100 UTC TUE MAY 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 126N 1145W 34 13  16(29)   3(32)   2(34)   1(35)   X(35)   1(36)
 12 126N 1145W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 126N 1145W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 126N 1156W 34  1  20(21)  12(33)   4(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 24 126N 1156W 50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 126N 1156W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 126N 1167W 34  X   5( 5)  21(26)   7(33)   4(37)   1(38)   X(38)
 36 126N 1167W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 126N 1167W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 126N 1175W 34  X   2( 2)  16(18)   9(27)   6(33)   2(35)   1(36)
 48 126N 1175W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 48 126N 1175W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 125N 1190W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)  10(22)   3(25)   1(26)
 72 125N 1190W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 125N 1190W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 123N 1205W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   4(15)   1(16)
 96 123N 1205W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 96 123N 1205W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 120N 1220W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)
120 120N 1220W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
120 120N 1220W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      45      40      40      35
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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