ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 800 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007 ALVIN HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON NIGHT-VIS IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE ON A FAST TRACK TO DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALVIN IS CREEPING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...250/2. MODELS CONTINUE THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR A FEW DAYS DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS ALSO A TOUCH SLOWER SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY REFUSING TO MOVE MUCH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 13.0N 115.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 12.9N 115.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 01/1200Z 12.7N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 02/1200Z 12.3N 117.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1200Z 11.9N 118.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1200Z 11.2N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 05/1200Z 10.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:55 UTC