ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012007 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2007 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH TODAY...AND PRESENTLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TO QUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT. INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH IS BEING CUT OFF BY THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS IN THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY NEGATIVE. THE MODEL ITSELF NOW SHOWS ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT. IN VIEW OF THE SSTS AND THE RELATIVELY LIGHT ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION... BUT IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN SOON THE SYSTEM WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW. WITH THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION IS NOT RESPONDING TO THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED. THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/2. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT AS THE DEPRESSION BUMPS UP AGAINST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 30N/145W. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...BUT WITH A WEAKENED SYSTEM THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN IT DID THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE UKMET GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.2N 111.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 13.3N 111.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 13.4N 112.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 13.5N 112.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 13.5N 113.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 13.5N 114.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 31/1800Z 13.3N 115.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 13.0N 116.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:54 UTC