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Tropical Depression OLGA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007               
0300 UTC THU DEC 13 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 190N  800W 34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 12 190N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 12 190N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 190N  820W 34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 24 190N  820W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 24 190N  820W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 195N  835W 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 195N  835W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 195N  835W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 200N  855W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 48 200N  855W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 200N  855W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 220N  865W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 220N  865W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 220N  865W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     25     20      20      20      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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