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Subtropical Storm OLGA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007               
0900 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GRAND TURK     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1  15(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34 14  16(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34 32   9(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 
PONCE          34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JUAN       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 185N  694W 34 37   7(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 12 185N  694W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 185N  694W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 185N  728W 34  X  12(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 24 185N  728W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 185N  728W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 185N  761W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 36 185N  761W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 185N  761W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 185N  794W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 185N  794W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 185N  794W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 185N  835W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 185N  835W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 185N  835W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     30      30      25      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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