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Tropical Depression OLGA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007
400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007
 
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z DID NOT SHOW ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 30 KT.  OLGA HAS
BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 06Z...AND HAS BEEN
UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SINCE THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...AND SO WE'LL HANG ON TO IT...AGAIN...JUST A LITTLE BIT
LONGER.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OLGA IS VERY DRY...AND THE
LONG-ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BECOMING APPARENT OVER THE
CENTER.  THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/20. OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
IF OLGA HAS ANY VERTICAL DEPTH AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 18.9N  76.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.1N  79.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.4N  82.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.9N  84.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 20.4N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 22.0N  87.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
 
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