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TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 7(38)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 8(36)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 3(34)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 3(35)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 2(40)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 1(29)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
W PALM BEACH 34 2 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MIAMI FL 34 6 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MARATHON FL 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
KEY WEST FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MARCO ISLAND 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 4 27(31) 9(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 22 50(72) 7(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 18(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 49 26(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
ANDROS 50 2 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
GREAT EXUMA 34 7 15(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
SAN SALVADOR 34 2 8(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
CIENFUEGOS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAMAGUEY 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 235N 790W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 235N 790W 50 17 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
12 235N 790W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 253N 781W 34 24 50(74) 6(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
24 253N 781W 50 1 20(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
24 253N 781W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 280N 760W 34 X 8( 8) 38(46) 8(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
36 280N 760W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
36 280N 760W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 315N 725W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 10(46) X(46) X(46)
48 315N 725W 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15)
48 315N 725W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 390N 660W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 11(42) X(42)
72 390N 660W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15)
72 390N 660W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 490N 575W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 9(34)
96 490N 575W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13)
96 490N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
120 600N 475W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21)
120 600N 475W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
120 600N 475W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 55 50 55 60 60 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC