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Tropical Storm NOEL (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
1500 UTC WED OCT 31 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  18(29)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  17(32)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  14(29)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  13(27)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   7(27)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  10(29)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)   8(35)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   5(23)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   2(15)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  3   8(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
MIAMI FL       34  6   9(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
MARATHON FL    34  4   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   3(20)   X(20)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  9  21(30)  10(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 53  22(75)   7(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  2  19(21)   7(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANDROS         34 81   6(87)   2(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
ANDROS         50 14  12(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
ANDROS         64  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34 20   9(29)   3(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  5   6(11)   6(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  9   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 239N  786W 34 91   4(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 12 239N  786W 50 30  11(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
 12 239N  786W 64  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 24 251N  782W 34 60  20(80)   5(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 24 251N  782W 50  4  24(28)   4(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 24 251N  782W 64  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 36 270N  767W 34  5  16(21)  29(50)   7(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
 36 270N  767W 50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 36 270N  767W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 300N  739W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)   9(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 48 300N  739W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 48 300N  739W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 360N  670W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)  10(35)   1(36)
 72 360N  670W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
 72 360N  670W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
 96 450N  600W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   8(32)
 96 450N  600W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)
 96 450N  600W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 550N  510W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)
120 550N  510W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
120 550N  510W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     55      50      45      55      60      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC