Tropical Storm NOEL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC WED OCT 31 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MIAMI FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 12(14) 27(41) 5(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ANDROS 34 8 22(30) 17(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
ANDROS 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GREAT EXUMA 34 3 4( 7) 9(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAMAGUEY 34 36 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 221N 788W 34 22 14(36) 1(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
12 221N 788W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 221N 788W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 233N 788W 34 20 21(41) 8(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
24 233N 788W 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
24 233N 788W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 251N 780W 34 2 14(16) 26(42) 4(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47)
36 251N 780W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
36 251N 780W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 276N 765W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 20(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36)
48 276N 765W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
48 276N 765W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 345N 695W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) 1(31)
72 345N 695W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
72 345N 695W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
96 420N 620W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33)
96 420N 620W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12)
96 420N 620W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
120 510N 550W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17)
120 510N 550W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
120 510N 550W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 45 50 60 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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