Tropical Storm NOEL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 7(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X 6( 6) 13(19) 8(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 7( 8) 17(25) 11(36) 9(45) 1(46) X(46)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 6 29(35) 19(54) 5(59) 4(63) X(63) X(63)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANDROS 34 15 45(60) 11(71) 2(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75)
ANDROS 50 X 13(13) 11(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
ANDROS 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GREAT EXUMA 34 53 16(69) 3(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74)
GREAT EXUMA 50 2 8(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN SALVADOR 34 24 8(32) 4(36) 1(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
CAMAGUEY 34 5 14(19) 5(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 19 2(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 222N 763W 34 79 9(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
12 222N 763W 50 13 11(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
12 222N 763W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
24 233N 776W 34 28 41(69) 5(74) 2(76) 1(77) X(77) 1(78)
24 233N 776W 50 1 20(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
24 233N 776W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
36 244N 784W 34 5 36(41) 19(60) 4(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67)
36 244N 784W 50 X 6( 6) 12(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
36 244N 784W 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
48 255N 785W 34 2 18(20) 23(43) 8(51) 6(57) X(57) 1(58)
48 255N 785W 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19)
48 255N 785W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 285N 755W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 18(26) 5(31) 1(32)
72 285N 755W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)
72 285N 755W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 330N 700W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20)
96 330N 700W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
96 330N 700W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 380N 640W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
120 380N 640W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 380N 640W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 55 55 50 45 45 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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