Tropical Storm NOEL

ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1500 UTC WED OCT 31 2007
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SANCTI SPIRITUS AND GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... GRANMA...HOLGUIN...AND
SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOEL.  AS NOEL MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY...ITS WIND FIELD WILL APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AND THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING
MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  IN EITHER
CASE...WINDS NEAR GALE/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  78.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  78.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  78.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N  78.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.1N  78.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.0N  76.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.0N  73.9W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.0N  67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...180NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 45.0N  60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 55.0N  51.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N  78.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
NNNN