Tropical Storm NOEL

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TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
0900 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND
GUANTANAMO.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  76.0W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE   0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  76.0W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  75.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.2N  77.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.3N  78.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N  78.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N  77.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.0N  72.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 175SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 37.0N  66.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 45.0N  58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  76.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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