Tropical Depression MELISSA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 167N  343W 34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 12 167N  343W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 167N  343W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 177N  365W 34  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 24 177N  365W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 177N  365W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 188N  389W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 188N  389W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 188N  389W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 202N  408W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 48 202N  408W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 202N  408W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
 72 235N  435W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 72 235N  435W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 72 235N  435W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     25     25      25      20      20       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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