Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 144N  273W 34 26  15(41)   1(42)   X(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 12 144N  273W 50  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 12 144N  273W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 150N  285W 34  4  28(32)   8(40)   2(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 24 150N  285W 50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 150N  285W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 160N  300W 34  X   7( 7)  20(27)   5(32)   1(33)   1(34)   X(34)
 36 160N  300W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 160N  300W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 170N  315W 34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)  11(20)   4(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 48 170N  315W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 48 170N  315W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 185N  340W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 72 185N  340W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 185N  340W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 210N  360W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   2(12)
 96 210N  360W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 210N  360W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 250N  366W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
120 250N  366W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 250N  366W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      40      35      30      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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