Tropical Storm KAREN

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 174N  543W 34 17  14(31)   1(32)   X(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 12 174N  543W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 174N  543W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 185N  557W 34  2  13(15)   5(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 24 185N  557W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 24 185N  557W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 200N  570W 34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)   3(20)   X(20)   1(21)
 36 200N  570W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 200N  570W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 210N  582W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   6(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 48 210N  582W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 48 210N  582W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 230N  605W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   2(18)
 72 230N  605W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 72 230N  605W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 245N  630W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   2(14)
 96 245N  630W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 96 245N  630W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 255N  650W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
120 255N  650W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
120 255N  650W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     30     25      25      25      30      30      30
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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