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Tropical Storm KAREN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 126N  445W 34 83   8(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 12 126N  445W 50 36  23(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 12 126N  445W 64 11   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
 24 140N  468W 34  2  67(69)  11(80)   1(81)   X(81)   1(82)   X(82)
 24 140N  468W 50  X  36(36)  15(51)   1(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 24 140N  468W 64  X  14(14)  11(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
 36 155N  485W 34  1  13(14)  45(59)   9(68)   4(72)   X(72)   1(73)
 36 155N  485W 50  X   2( 2)  29(31)  10(41)   2(43)   X(43)   1(44)
 36 155N  485W 64  X   X( X)  13(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
 48 168N  500W 34  X   3( 3)  21(24)  23(47)  11(58)   2(60)   1(61)
 48 168N  500W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  16(23)   6(29)   1(30)   X(30)
 48 168N  500W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
 
 72 190N  520W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  23(37)   7(44)   3(47)
 72 190N  520W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   4(19)   2(21)
 72 190N  520W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 210N  540W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)  12(27)   5(32)
 96 210N  540W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)
 96 210N  540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
 
120 230N  555W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   6(22)
120 230N  555W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
120 230N  555W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     65     75      75      70      65      60      55
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH                                         
                                                                    
                                                                    
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